With markets in flux and large price movements making headlines, it’s natural to feel some trepidation about what lies ahead. Yet, as we often remind ourselves, mayhem in the markets isn’t something to fear—it’s an ally for disciplined investors like us. 

One of the key rules we follow is to resist letting any single event—including elections—dictate how we assess markets or advise clients. Yes, big decisions made in Washington will matter, but markets tend to overreact in such cases, at least initially and over the intermediate term, pricing in emotion rather than fundamentals. This dynamic, while challenging, creates opportunities for those who remain resiliently focused on relevant details, valuation, and the long-term potential of businesses. 

As we look ahead to the next four years, part of our work will be understanding how policy changes impact portfolio companies—sometimes at a micro level, sometimes with broader implications. If history is any guide, markets will often over-simplify these events to extremes, both positive and negative, creating swings in pricing that can feel unsettling. But for us, those extremes are the foundation for strong and sustainable long-term outcomes. 

Take Moderna, for example. Its stock price has nearly returned to pre-COVID levels, back when it was a relatively unknown company pioneering what was then nascent mRNA technology. During the pandemic, Moderna became a household name as its vaccines saved countless lives, but the market’s current narrative overlooks the business’s broader progress since then. The company has advanced significantly, with a promising partnership with Merck to develop personalized cancer vaccines and an innovative platform enabling other companies to develop, produce, and market their mRNA solutions—a model closely related to SaaS. 

This is a prime example of what countless companies held by Crewcial clients are doing: pushing forward, increasing their impact, and building intrinsic value. The market, however, often ignores this progress, reacting emotionally to news like perceived policy threats or short-term challenges. While this may create short-term noise across performance reports, is it really bad? Or is it a chance to act decisively and with conviction? 

We’ve seen this dynamic before. Carvana is another example where market overreaction turned solvable risks (solvency) into what appeared to be an existential crisis. When the stock collapsed, it created an opportunity for disciplined investors, delivering returns of nearly 50x from its lowest point. Carvana and Moderna are very different businesses, but the lesson is the same: markets often price companies based on fear or extreme narratives, creating windows for investors who understand the fundamentals and the steps needed to mitigate real risks. 

This matters now more than ever. Such situations reflect why our diversified, detail-driven approach matters. We don’t rely on set-it-and-forget-it index strategies, which struggle in volatile markets. Instead, we lean into market inefficiencies, seeking out businesses with intrinsic value that’s overlooked or underappreciated. This isn’t just about staying competitive—it’s about thriving in an environment where both the challenges and rewards are greater for those willing to do the hard work; this approach is what sets us apart. 

Extremes in market pricing may make headlines, but for investors who embrace diversification, perform clear-eyed work around valuation, and maintain discipline, they create opportunities to ultimately deliver strong outcomes. As political outcomes unfold and policy shifts take shape, we’ll continue to focus on turning volatility into opportunity for our clients. 

It’s not always easy, but it’s what we do best—and it’s what makes our work now more important than ever.