Discretionary Investing
Senior Consultant Charlie Georgalas will explore how to optimize long-term portfolio construction while navigating the broader investment landscape through a discretionary lens, discussing the particular advantages, latest developments, and most pressing challenges of running an OCIO (Outsourced Chief Investment Officer) program, and how to best benefit from the former while mitigating the latter.
E002 | NACUBO : Endowment Leadership Series on Spending Considerations
In anticipation of our online NACUBO Endowment Leadership Series on Endowment Spending Considerations, Crewcial consultants (and session hosts) Charlie Georgalas and James Bell sat down to provide an overview of how to consider this nuanced topic more effectively.
Adopting a prudent spending policy is essential for colleges and endowments looking to balance short-term needs with long-term sustainability. By understanding the intricacies underlying different spending approaches, institutions can make informed decisions, address budgetary pressures, and position themselves for financial resilience and growth in the face of evolving market conditions.
Key Takeaways:
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Spending Policies Can Be Diverse: Spending policies for colleges and endowment foundations vary, from very simple to complicated. Some institutions adopt inflation-linked policies, while others base spending on last year's expenditure plus inflation, while other use a percentage of the rolling average of the portfolio market value.
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Policy Formulation is Key: Crafting a spending policy requires careful consideration and agreement among all stakeholders, including investment committees, boards, and staff.
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Balance Short-Term Needs with Long-Term Impact: Spending decisions have profound implications for future wealth creation and maintenance, emphasizing the importance of a strategic, intergenerational approach able to weather interim challenges such as market volatility and short-term financial needs.
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Determine Your Effective Spending Rate: Effective spending rates may differ from stated policies due to market fluctuations, prompting institutions to reassess and potentially lower spending rates for long-term benefits.
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Address Budget Pressures with Transparency and Documentation: Strategies to mitigate budgetary pressures include embracing risk in investment portfolios, implementing ‘glide paths’ for portfolio realignment, and considering borrowing from the endowment in the manner of a loan. Keep in mind that borrowing from endowments requires transparent communication, constituent buy-in, documented agreements, and adherence to defined spending policies to ensure financial integrity.
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Consider the Role of Portfolio Management: Spending rates inform risk management and portfolio structure, influencing investment decisions and asset-allocation strategies.
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Be Proactive: Market downturns may lead to increased spending rates in the subsequent fiscal year, necessitating proactive budget planning and managing stakeholder expectations. Institutions must prepare for spending fluctuations by having difficult conversations about resource allocation while seeking sustainable solutions.
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Take Advantage of Educational Opportunities: Educational forums like that of NACUBO provide platforms for deeper discussions on spending policies, sustainable financial strategies, and navigating challenges in the current economic landscape.
Edited for form, concision, and clarity.
Charles Georgalas: Thank you for joining. With me is James Bell, an Investment Director here at Crewcial Partners.
We're going to talk about spending policies today, and how important they are to so many colleges and endowment foundations. So to kick off, James and I will go through and mention the different kinds of spending policies. Caps and floors is one interesting way that spending policies can be calculated; I'm sure James knows of a couple of others as well.
James Bell: Sure. One example is taking an average of the rolling quarters so any one quarter doesn't influence your spending overall, but reflects a bit of the impact of recent gains or changes in the overall value of your portfolio.
Charles Georgalas: That really is the most common spending policy, taking some form of a three-year rolling average of market values and applying the spending rate to it. But there are other forms as well.
Inflation targeting is another policy, while yet another takes last year’s spending plus inflation and then uses 30% of the rolling average.
There are interesting issues and differences around each one of them, but I think one of the main things is that this needs to be recorded in your policy. It needs to be thought out in practice, and then agreed upon by all the constituencies, the Investment Committee and board as well as staff.
Approaching the spending policy over a very long period of time can actually have a big impact. When we're talking about spending policy, we’re focused on this idea of intergenerational capital—that the decisions that people make today can have a long-term impact on future generations.
James Bell: One of the challenges as a long-term institution is facing a series of short-term events—in the case of a university, this could be a new project you need to support on your campus, or it could be a period of market volatility or recent market declines.
If you have a period when you're comparing your spending rate versus the actual portfolio value, and the portfolio value has dropped because the market has come down, you could have a higher spending rate for that moment. The challenge is that, ultimately, what is the overall purchasing power of a portfolio over time? How much capital can we get out of that portfolio?
One of the interesting things we see, if you look at universities, is they have periods of time when they do end up drawing a bit more; in fact, taking Yale throughout the 70s, they actually overspent a little bit during that time period, yet, over time, this reigned this in and let their portfolios grow, ultimately giving them more money to be able to spend on programs. So the challenge of near-term spending versus long-term spending is how that impacts the overall purchasing power of the portfolio.
Charles Georgalas: Another thing to keep in mind in terms of a long-term process is the actual spending percentage. There's a lot of debate about that. There are even different ways to calculate and view the spending rate.
Say you have a 5% spending policy, but when you take the actual calculations and measure the dollars associated with that, then divide this by the market value of the endowment, you arrive at what people like to refer to as the ‘effective rate of the spending.’
And markets tend to move up over long periods of time. So even though you have a 5% spending policy, the effective rate might be closer to 4.5-4.25%, although it is important to know this goes in the other direction as well; if market values decline, your effective rate is going to increase from those low numbers.
A lot of institutions have been considering lowering the rate from 5% to a lower number, because it does have a longer-term impact on that intergenerational gap. If you lower from 5% to 4.5%, and you're spending policy is calculated on a three-year rolling basis, over a 20- to 25-year period, you’d get to a point where the spending rate crosses over—it seems slightly counterintuitive, as you're spending less today, but you're banking that money, allowing it to grow in the endowment, then around year 22, the actual dollar amount to be spent is actually higher than it would have been if you’d kept the 5% spending policy.
However, I think over the last 12 to 15 months, the inflation rate has been double spending policies, which is a really difficult situation for budgets. And we understand that. So sitting here today, and telling you to lower your spending rate in today's environment, we know sounds a little hollow, but I think everyone can understand the long-term intergenerational benefits.
But there are other issues that need to be satisfied, like paying the bills at your institution. And so we'll talk about some ideas for consideration to fill the gap on your spending issues instead of lowering your spending policy, which, as we all know, is difficult to do in today's environment.
James Bell: A great analogy for thinking about the portfolio and your endowment is you have a bucket, and it's full of water, and more water is coming into it every year; and the bucket swings around, going back and forth.
Over time, as you take water out of that bucket, draining it down, this becomes your spending rate; the water coming in each year represents how much your portfolio grows from market performance, while the bucket swinging back and forth is volatility.
One of the tools you can use to put a little bit more in your bucket is embracing some risk in your portfolio; by increasing the water in the bucket, you can help offset some of the extra draws. Now this is not going to cure everything, and it certainly has to be in the context of your overall portfolio and goals as an organization. The other thing is planning around a ‘glide path’ for bringing your portfolio back in alignment over time, so you're spending back into alignment with your portfolio’s performance over time. Having a situation in which you need to spend more money now is not necessarily the end of the world, but you have to have a plan over a couple of years to bring it back.
Charles Georgalas: A lot of schools are struggling with their budgets and thinking about ways to try to alleviate some of that pressure. One way is to actually borrow from the endowment. While it is unusual, we have seen it done. I understand that that is a complicated strategy and constituents need to approve the decision, and we would further suggest that it gets documented and treated as a true loan. And the spending rate should remain the spending policy of the endowment so the college’s draw isn’t materially impacted. It's like paying yourself back, with an understanding that eventually the school has to repay the endowment alone.
We have seen this work reasonably well for several reasons. First, it is transparent; all constituencies must buy in. Additionally, it includes a loan document with an interest rate that is equated to your spending policy. I think those elements are vital to provide the potential benefit. It's not going to work at every institution; it could be viewed as unusual. For example, a state program, college or university, may have difficult executing it based on potential laws that may not apply to a private institution.
James Bell: For us, in our role working with any of our non-profit clients, spending rate is a key aspect behind the scenes; it really plays a role in helping define some of the risks that we're able to take in a portfolio. It also plays a big role in the structure of the portfolio for each institution.
One of the things we've observed more recently in the NACUBO data, at least the first cut of the data from last year, is that smaller institutions significantly bumped up their spending rates over the last fiscal year. Of course, this is partly due to what happened with the market. Generally, whenever there is a market correction or setback, you see a higher draw rate from the portfolios the following year. Because spending rate, as reported, is really just reporting the dollars out over the portfolio’s value; that is not necessarily the same thing as the overall spending policy that an organization adopts.
Charles Georgalas: The focus on that difference is really very helpful in understanding the patterns of spending over different calendar years when trying to prepare yourself, such as seeing certain market actions and knowing that next year’s spending is going to be slightly elevated because of a market downturn in the previous calendar year.
It’s about managing those expectations throughout the college, and preparing budgets that try to understand what's coming. Some of the preparations can include difficult conversations about the dollars spent on certain parts of the mission, alongside what can be pushed into the next calendar year. But many colleges and universities are obviously struggling with this debate; how to actually work towards some solutions is really what we're trying to focus on for our NACUBO presentation on April 4—not just the educational aspect of spending, but the world of things you can proactively bring to your organization to help alleviate some of the stress you may be feeling around the spending policy today.
Thanks for joining us today. We hoped we helped shed some light on the intricacies of spending policy and rates. Ultimately, it's about finding what works for you and weighing any short-term gains against the long-term consequences of those decisions.
James and I will be hosting a panel on exactly this topic at the annual NACUBO endowment Leadership Forum on April 4 at 2PM. We plan on going a bit deeper into how educational endowments can better position themselves for sustainable spending choices in what has been a challenging and extended environment marked by rising costs and falling enrollment.
The link to the conference will be included below. Until next time.
Edited for form, concision, and clarity.
Charles Georgalas: Thank you for joining. With me is James Bell, an Investment Director here at Crewcial Partners.
We're going to talk about spending policies today, and how important they are to so many colleges and endowment foundations. So to kick off, James and I will go through and mention the different kinds of spending policies. Caps and floors is one interesting way that spending policies can be calculated; I'm sure James knows of a couple of others as well.
James Bell: Sure. One example is taking an average of the rolling quarters so any one quarter doesn't influence your spending overall, but reflects a bit of the impact of recent gains or changes in the overall value of your portfolio.
Charles Georgalas: That really is the most common spending policy, taking some form of a three-year rolling average of market values and applying the spending rate to it. But there are other forms as well.
Inflation targeting is another policy, while yet another takes last year’s spending plus inflation and then uses 30% of the rolling average.
There are interesting issues and differences around each one of them, but I think one of the main things is that this needs to be recorded in your policy. It needs to be thought out in practice, and then agreed upon by all the constituencies, the Investment Committee and board as well as staff.
Approaching the spending policy over a very long period of time can actually have a big impact. When we're talking about spending policy, we’re focused on this idea of intergenerational capital—that the decisions that people make today can have a long-term impact on future generations.
James Bell: One of the challenges as a long-term institution is facing a series of short-term events—in the case of a university, this could be a new project you need to support on your campus, or it could be a period of market volatility or recent market declines.
If you have a period when you're comparing your spending rate versus the actual portfolio value, and the portfolio value has dropped because the market has come down, you could have a higher spending rate for that moment. The challenge is that, ultimately, what is the overall purchasing power of a portfolio over time? How much capital can we get out of that portfolio?
One of the interesting things we see, if you look at universities, is they have periods of time when they do end up drawing a bit more; in fact, taking Yale throughout the 70s, they actually overspent a little bit during that time period, yet, over time, this reigned this in and let their portfolios grow, ultimately giving them more money to be able to spend on programs. So the challenge of near-term spending versus long-term spending is how that impacts the overall purchasing power of the portfolio.
Charles Georgalas: Another thing to keep in mind in terms of a long-term process is the actual spending percentage. There's a lot of debate about that. There are even different ways to calculate and view the spending rate.
Say you have a 5% spending policy, but when you take the actual calculations and measure the dollars associated with that, then divide this by the market value of the endowment, you arrive at what people like to refer to as the ‘effective rate of the spending.’
And markets tend to move up over long periods of time. So even though you have a 5% spending policy, the effective rate might be closer to 4.5-4.25%, although it is important to know this goes in the other direction as well; if market values decline, your effective rate is going to increase from those low numbers.
A lot of institutions have been considering lowering the rate from 5% to a lower number, because it does have a longer-term impact on that intergenerational gap. If you lower from 5% to 4.5%, and you're spending policy is calculated on a three-year rolling basis, over a 20- to 25-year period, you’d get to a point where the spending rate crosses over—it seems slightly counterintuitive, as you're spending less today, but you're banking that money, allowing it to grow in the endowment, then around year 22, the actual dollar amount to be spent is actually higher than it would have been if you’d kept the 5% spending policy.
However, I think over the last 12 to 15 months, the inflation rate has been double spending policies, which is a really difficult situation for budgets. And we understand that. So sitting here today, and telling you to lower your spending rate in today's environment, we know sounds a little hollow, but I think everyone can understand the long-term intergenerational benefits.
But there are other issues that need to be satisfied, like paying the bills at your institution. And so we'll talk about some ideas for consideration to fill the gap on your spending issues instead of lowering your spending policy, which, as we all know, is difficult to do in today's environment.
James Bell: A great analogy for thinking about the portfolio and your endowment is you have a bucket, and it's full of water, and more water is coming into it every year; and the bucket swings around, going back and forth.
Over time, as you take water out of that bucket, draining it down, this becomes your spending rate; the water coming in each year represents how much your portfolio grows from market performance, while the bucket swinging back and forth is volatility.
One of the tools you can use to put a little bit more in your bucket is embracing some risk in your portfolio; by increasing the water in the bucket, you can help offset some of the extra draws. Now this is not going to cure everything, and it certainly has to be in the context of your overall portfolio and goals as an organization. The other thing is planning around a ‘glide path’ for bringing your portfolio back in alignment over time, so you're spending back into alignment with your portfolio’s performance over time. Having a situation in which you need to spend more money now is not necessarily the end of the world, but you have to have a plan over a couple of years to bring it back.
Charles Georgalas: A lot of schools are struggling with their budgets and thinking about ways to try to alleviate some of that pressure. One way is to actually borrow from the endowment. While it is unusual, we have seen it done. I understand that that is a complicated strategy and constituents need to approve the decision, and we would further suggest that it gets documented and treated as a true loan. And the spending rate should remain the spending policy of the endowment so the college’s draw isn’t materially impacted. It's like paying yourself back, with an understanding that eventually the school has to repay the endowment alone.
We have seen this work reasonably well for several reasons. First, it is transparent; all constituencies must buy in. Additionally, it includes a loan document with an interest rate that is equated to your spending policy. I think those elements are vital to provide the potential benefit. It's not going to work at every institution; it could be viewed as unusual. For example, a state program, college or university, may have difficult executing it based on potential laws that may not apply to a private institution.
James Bell: For us, in our role working with any of our non-profit clients, spending rate is a key aspect behind the scenes; it really plays a role in helping define some of the risks that we're able to take in a portfolio. It also plays a big role in the structure of the portfolio for each institution.
One of the things we've observed more recently in the NACUBO data, at least the first cut of the data from last year, is that smaller institutions significantly bumped up their spending rates over the last fiscal year. Of course, this is partly due to what happened with the market. Generally, whenever there is a market correction or setback, you see a higher draw rate from the portfolios the following year. Because spending rate, as reported, is really just reporting the dollars out over the portfolio’s value; that is not necessarily the same thing as the overall spending policy that an organization adopts.
Charles Georgalas: The focus on that difference is really very helpful in understanding the patterns of spending over different calendar years when trying to prepare yourself, such as seeing certain market actions and knowing that next year’s spending is going to be slightly elevated because of a market downturn in the previous calendar year.
It’s about managing those expectations throughout the college, and preparing budgets that try to understand what's coming. Some of the preparations can include difficult conversations about the dollars spent on certain parts of the mission, alongside what can be pushed into the next calendar year. But many colleges and universities are obviously struggling with this debate; how to actually work towards some solutions is really what we're trying to focus on for our NACUBO presentation on April 4—not just the educational aspect of spending, but the world of things you can proactively bring to your organization to help alleviate some of the stress you may be feeling around the spending policy today.
Thanks for joining us today. We hoped we helped shed some light on the intricacies of spending policy and rates. Ultimately, it's about finding what works for you and weighing any short-term gains against the long-term consequences of those decisions.
James and I will be hosting a panel on exactly this topic at the annual NACUBO endowment Leadership Forum on April 4 at 2PM. We plan on going a bit deeper into how educational endowments can better position themselves for sustainable spending choices in what has been a challenging and extended environment marked by rising costs and falling enrollment.
The link to the conference will be included below. Until next time.
What were some of the main successes of Crewcial Partners last year?
Summary: Most importantly, we maintained our long-term posture through an unfriendly market. Markets have a way of overreacting to events; however, our clients stayed on track and kept their public equity exposure at high levels. Our process ensured we never faced liquidity challenges or any issue that demanded we act in a short-term matter.
Lesson: A long-term bias works but requires discipline, diversification, and an understanding of expectations. Fundamentals and valuation—the price you pay for something— ultimately matters. Crises and difficult times have winners and losers. The winners are ultimately those with the strongest balance sheets, best business strategies, and the most capable manager teams; they win over the longer term because they're better than their competition.
What are your thoughts on sizing in the current environment?
Summary: It can seem contrary to human nature at times; the stuff that does well, you want to see become a bigger and bigger part of the portfolio. However, you should be adding money to managers that have struggled but are poised to rebound, keeping in mind your longer-term return profile. Sizing is important and depends on a deep understanding of diversification and manager volatility profiles.
Lesson: Take advantage of the natural cyclicality within markets, selling at the peaks and buying the bottom is the way to long-term sustainable success. Be proactive when managers have a great year. When Crewcial has a manager that's up 100%, we ensure that we trim back 25-50% so the capital is ready to redeploy into out-of-favor managers with even stronger future prospects.
What are some of the areas that could be improved from 2023?
Summary: We are still trying to wrap our heads around the way markets are actually functioning; the gap between price and fundamental value seems as if it's become unbounded. This creates a problem of balance. If you're constructing a diversified portfolio, one of your underlying assumptions is that it will moderate volatility and some of the short-terms concerns; this should allow you to play offense when things are bad and a little defense when things are really good. But that falls apart if markets are creating high correlations that shouldn't exist between strategies. We’re still learning to better understand which conditions can and will create more of these correlation issues, so that we don't end up constructing portfolios that require truly extraordinary levels of patience to see through.
Lesson: Cultivate a better understanding of correlation among managers. Thinking about managers based on the way they behave in different market climates is important. Prepare for various environments and build portfolios that are not going to have several seemingly distinct strategies reacting to the same market environment. Diversification is ultimately always your friend.
What are some of the insights you’ve gained from your latest year of travel?
Summary: Being back on the road has been one of the great events of 2023. It’s rewarding to physically sit down with people, whether in Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, or the United States, and really hear what they’re seeing on the ground, what they’re doing in their portfolios, and the real-world implications, because markets aren't necessarily the real world. Being reminded how different people see the world differently is immensely important as an investor.
Lesson: Preferable options exist outside indexation; opening up to a global perspective broadens one’s ability to consider truly impactful diversification. The goal is to find differentiated thinking wherever it is. We're not looking for investment managers, we’re looking for thoughtful, engaged people who invest.
What does history tell us for “Magnificent Seven” index funds going forward?
Summary: The index has reached a very high level of valuation concentrated in a group of unbelievably dominant companies. However, while no one is arguing that Apple is a bad business, there is a price for everything and this price seems too high right now. From the 60s through the 00s, people felt the same about many companies that didn't prove to be very good investments. One way to illustrate this is to look at the top five in late 90s, which included Cisco, Intel, General Electric, Microsoft, and IBM. If we exclude Microsoft from the equation, these are all still pretty powerful businesses but they have not been good stocks to own. It’s the inevitable nature of impermanence. We can almost guarantee ten or 20 years from now, the current names will be around, but they probably won't be the most popular or dominant names in the market.
Lesson: Design portfolios to capture the broader economy; while well-constructed portfolios will always have allocations to bigger names, entire swaths of the economy are growing at a much faster rate than these brand-name businesses and are currently being overlooked by investors. Capture long-term opportunities today cheaply.
What is Crewcial excited about for 2024?
Summary: First, ESG, which has unfortunately become a very controversial subject. However, at the end of the day, it's a powerful risk framework; from our perspective, we need to be able to arm both our clients and our research team and consultants with better information on this subject and approach, as it’s a complicated topic. We can't make it simple, but we can identify very specific variables at the portfolio company level to transparently consider which managers and portfolios have a higher level of risk around material environmental, social, and governance issues that affect their viability as good investments.
Second, another big change at Crewcial was our formation of an investment committee. We’re doubling down on our approach, allowing talented team members to focus on what they understand best and follow their passions as investors, but we’re now taking those passions and directing them into somewhat of a more formalized process. It's based on tracking, monitoring, and ensuring individuals get the training they need to scale and fully capture the bigger picture to find the best managers, no matter their initial backgrounds upon entering the firm, while pairing complementary skillsets to bring out the team’s full potential.
Lesson: Don’t be afraid to be different while embracing the fundamental rules of finance. Identify the full scope of everyone’s areas of strength and play off each to build a greater whole. Embrace idiosyncrasies and preferences while being open and honest with feedback and assessments. We do not treat our investment team members as analysts, rather as investors cultivating an owner’s mindset. We're trying to find ways to capitalize on differentiated perspectives to ultimately uncover the difference between market price and fundamental value; seeing things differently, and cultivating an environment in which such perspectives can range openly, is a critical element of that.
We don’t just want the usual suspects from the same handful of schools, we want to expand our collective perspective to include more women, ethnically diverse individuals, and people of all persuasions from different parts of the country or with different educational or experiential backgrounds—talented people come in all shapes and sizes. A diverse team of diverse perspectives is intended to capture the overlooked points of view necessary to uncover the next great idea.
TBD
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Crewcial Partners LLC is a Securities and Exchange Commission registered investment advisor. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investments involve risk and are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed here.